Joining the Labour Party (Debate)

Sun 15 Jan 2023, 22:50

I understand that a Recent You Gov poll put the Lib Dems just 4% behind the Cons in the Witney constituency, with Labour on 12% and the Greens on 4%. 

Thu 10 Nov 2022, 21:40

On a more conciliatory note, the last Labour Party Conference voted in favour of proportional representation https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/labour-party-conference-backs-proportional-representation/. PR makes tactical voting redundant except in very special circumstances. Another referendum on PR would with Labour support be likely to succeed. I'll join in that campaign.

Thu 10 Nov 2022, 21:19

This thread now needs to be cross referenced with the one on the main board "Parliamentary Constituency Boundary Review". It's now very likely that Charlbury will move into the Banbury constituency where Labour is indisputably the main challenger to the Tories. If so, will the principle of tactical voting, long espoused by the LibDems  be  applied by them?  Gareth, will you be following the former LibDem Councillor Chris Tatton's courageous lead and voting Labour in the next General Election?!

Sun 6 Nov 2022, 10:34

I have heard of one constituency where they are proposing to establish a primary  - several candidates put themselves forward and are selected on performance.  We can assume that the Labour Party would refuse to participate, but it oculd be interesting.

Sun 6 Nov 2022, 09:21

I completely understand and respect the reasons why many people support tactical voting, but can I suggest that people wait and see who the candidates are?

Otherwise we risk ending up with another MP who is more interested in climbing the greasy pole than in representing the views of their constituents. 

Fri 28 Oct 2022, 17:18 (last edited on Fri 28 Oct 2022, 17:24)

There have been 19 district council elections since May.  The results - taking seats from the Conservatives - Greens 5, Labour 8, LibDems 6. So don't imagine the LibDems are the only other party.

The True and Fair Party (Gina Miller's new party) and probably the Climate Party are likely to field candidates against Robert Courts.  This won't help.  We need a cooperation agreement at national level between all parties.  The system is stacked against the smaller parties.  Look at the number of votes to win a seat in parliament across the different parties in 2019:

Conservative: 365 seats; a total of 13.9m votes; an average 3,826 votes/seat.          

Labour: 202 seats; a total of 10.3m votes; an average of 5,084 votes/ seat.

LibDems: 11 seats; a total of 3.7m votes; an average of 336,036 votes/ seat.

Greens: 1 seat: a total of 0.85m votes; and average of 0.85m votes/ seat.

I would also add that politics since 2016 has been a list of extraordinary and mostly unpleasant surprises. The next election might bring another - and perhaps a more pleasant one.

Mon 24 Oct 2022, 09:30 (last edited on Mon 24 Oct 2022, 09:58)

The Lib Dem candidate in Ascott and Shipton lost to the Conservative by 4 votes.  That was because, in spite of having been asked not to stand by her own party, the Labour candidate insisted on standing and picked up around 200 votes. Happily it didn't prevent us from forming an alliance with Labour to take WODC out of Conservative control, but there are lessons to be learnt from this experience. If we want to get rid of Courts at the next election, having three opposing candidates will not achieve anything useful as the vote will be split as it always has been.  A lot depends on what disillusioned Conservative voters decide to do and for many the idea of voting Labour is a step too far. They can be persuaded to vote Lib Dem for the right candidate, but many may simply not vote if the choice is a straight one between Courts and a Labour candidate.  The numbers show that on their own, even if they combined forces, Labour, Greens and Lib Dems cannot oust Courts - we have to have some Tories crossing over if that is to happen.

I was very pleased to see that at the recent Party conference Labour voted for proportional representation. I now hope that this will become a manifesto pledge.  If it does, and if the Tories lose the next election, then we will be in the happy position of dragging ourselves out of the company of Belarus and the US as the only other countries that maintain a first past the post system, and into line with the rest of the democracies around the globe.   And please don't point out that there are a lot of dysfunctional democracies out there, like Italy - surely no-one compares to Trump, Truss and Lukashenko!

Mon 24 Oct 2022, 08:57

If, the day after the next election you are wondering why the dreadful Courts is re-elected, you need to look little further than this debate topic. My priority is the the removal of Courts and progressive tactical voting will be the only way to achieve that. 

If you want to see how this pumping up Labour chances in Witney will work, you need to look no further than the WODC election result in Ascott, Shipton and Milton last May. 

Sun 23 Oct 2022, 20:15

Perhaps Mr Gibson-Leitch would like to highlight when the Labour Party last had so few MPs in Parliament, and what its record has been in by-elections since the last General Election.

I think the answers are '87 years ago' and 'net losses'.  I think comments about spent forces are a case of glass houses and stones from the Tories' little helpers.

Sun 23 Oct 2022, 18:40

It is, of course, also astonishing that the LibDems sold their souls to crawl into power with Cameron (e.g. on tuition fees), and were then surprised that their dreams of electoral reform were quashed by a referendum.

And, having sold out so cheaply, the LibDems are now a tiny, spent force in parliament.

So, instead of going with the local orthodoxy that the only way to displace the Tories in Witney is to vote LibDem, why don’t we all go with the headwind and vote Labour? As we saw in the very first posting on this thread, Mr Webster was thinking of moving from the Conservatives to Labour. And I imagine others like him are thinking the same.

Sun 23 Oct 2022, 16:47

No surprise to see Labour members advocating a course of action that helps the Tories.  It is what they all too frequently do.

Meanwhile, the country sees a serious threat of a criminal serial liar and charlatan returning to Downing Street only weeks after he was ousted as Tory leader and Prime Minister.

The point about electoral reform is well made.  It is astonishing that after twelve years in opposition, the Labour leadership still fail to grasp this.

Sat 22 Oct 2022, 17:52 (last edited on Sun 23 Oct 2022, 11:11)

Being of a certain age, I can't help picturing the late Terry Thomas saying 'what en ebsoloot shaar'!  The fact that a large number of MPs now see Johnson - a proven liar who still faces possible Parliamentary sanctions, not to mention being a lazy, narcissistic, anti-democratic populist who'd say anything to get elected - as their (and note 'their' not the country's) salvation when 50+ members of his own government resigned / voted him out only 3 months ago, tells you all you need to know about the current Conservative party.

I'd vote for my first choice if I thought he or she had a reasonable prospect of success.   But as per my earlier post, the first priority is surely to get them out, the second to persuade Starmer of the need for proportional representation.  I'm no expert on that but there has to be a system that wouldn't take us into Italian style chaos - and just look at us now!  That way at least the non-Tory majority might at last 'take control' and move us on to somewhere more sensible...

Funny, I was never really an 'angry young man' - hey, it was the early 70s - but I find myself becoming an increasingly angry old one.  Well, late-middle-aged ok...

Sat 22 Oct 2022, 16:00 (last edited on Sat 22 Oct 2022, 16:01)

Yes, I do agree with Clive and Nick. It is time to re-consider the tactical vote. 

As a Labour Party member since 1967, I have voted 'tactically' on several occasions in this constituency in order to offer some opposition to the Tories.                                                                                                                                     (I fully acknowledge the good that Liz Leffman and Andy Graham have delivered for Charlbury.)

 Nevertheless, I now recognise that continuing to vote 'tactically' is self-defeating. If I want to register my true allegiance, I have to vote, as Nick puts it: "with my conscience".

Fri 21 Oct 2022, 19:00

Hi Clive. Yes I will be voting Labour if Charlbury is moved into the Banbury seat, and Lib Dem if we stay in the Witney. Unlike some I want to vote tactically for the best option to remove Courts.

Fri 21 Oct 2022, 18:50 (last edited on Fri 21 Oct 2022, 19:02)

😁😁😁

Fri 21 Oct 2022, 17:21

I have always voted Labour, except in 2019, when I reluctantly voted LibDem, since the consensus of opinion seemed to be that that was the only way we might get rid of the Tories.

I assume Chris Tatton is correct in saying that in 2019 the Liberals got 30% of the vote (with the support of the Greens), while Labour got just 14%.

And I note that Charlie M has, completely against his conscience, voted LibDem for the last 27 years, simply because that seemed to represent the best way of getting the Tories out.

I imagine a lot of other naturally-Labour-supporters have also been voting tactically, probably for decades. It would be interesting to know just how many of that 30% of LibDem voters at the last election were Labour supporters, since it occurs to me that, given the groundswell towards Labour generally, then maybe at the next General Election, those who want a Labour government should not vote tactically, but for the party we would most like to win.

And I would hope that LibDem supporters might see that voting Labour might help to get the Tories out.

Just an idea, even if it does make me “one of the dimmest”.

Fri 21 Oct 2022, 13:48

And just to emphasize my earlier point, here's another election map that appeared on Twitter today: https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1583371168723001344?t=CLCuJtA_qhVlDiyyOA30wQ&s=03 - this time it's the LibDems that are highlighted for the Witney constituency. It's a cartographic psephological minefield out there! 

Thu 20 Oct 2022, 20:30

Gareth, I personally believe that our constituency on Witney is probably about the best example one could find of why the "first past the post" method of election is rotten to the core. Why? Because, as one who - for some 27 years - has had to vote against a party rather than for a party, it literally makes me want to vomit that my only vaguely realistic possibility of getting rid of our sitting MP is by voting for the opportunistic shower that are so power-mad that they were prepared to go into coalition with Cameron in order to lick the crumbs from beneath his table. After what they did then, I could never respect them ever again. 

Thu 20 Oct 2022, 08:57

My conscience tells me clearly that for the health and welfare of my family, community and country I should not vote Conservative.  That is the only instruction it issues.

Thu 20 Oct 2022, 08:49 (last edited on Thu 20 Oct 2022, 08:50)

Another Labour voice whose purpose and effect is entirely to help the Tories.

We know that we have a voting system that is unrepresentative and unfit for purpose.  In places like Reading and Swindon, Labour bombard Lib Dem and Green Party supporters with orders that they vote Labour - or else.  It is utter hypocrisy for local Labour Party supporters to howl with outrage at the rather gentler pointing out of the electoral arithmetic round here.

People will see how far Labour are behind in this constituency and can make their own minds up.  As they will in the constituencies which Redfield & Wilton’s clumsy calculation of uniform national swing from 2019 predicts a Labour win, omitting to mention (as in the case of Tiverton & Honiton) that as a result of by-elections, they have a Lib Dem MP.

Wed 19 Oct 2022, 23:29

This is a response to Andrew Webster's point. I've voted in every election in the Constituency (including when it was Banbury) in the last 50 years. The LibDem's- and the Liberals before them- have used this specious argument about only they can beat the Tories forever. Sometimes they have come second, sometimes the Labour Party has. Vote with your conscience.

Wed 19 Oct 2022, 09:26 (last edited on Wed 19 Oct 2022, 09:30)

The short answer to Nick Millea's point ("it would be good to know where Redfield and Wilton are sourcing their data" about constituency voting) is that the answer's not publicly available, and it's probably a highly untrustworthy algorithm. An algorithm which, if used on this occasion, flatly contradicts polling behaviour…

Long post - click to read full text

Wed 19 Oct 2022, 08:48

Folks, can we please try and keep this not personal please. If you want to argue, do it in the Debate thread. If you want to make it about personalities, do it in the pub.

Wed 19 Oct 2022, 08:47

Nick Millea should probably speak for himself, but somebody with that name has published numerous books on maps and is also listed as Map Curator at the Bodleian, University of Oxford. Is he somebody who also campaigned for Labour? That doesn't make his question about maps illegitimate.

The candidate who stood for Labour last time was Rosa Bolger, and tactical voting for the Lib Dems would not have changed the result in 2019 -- even though we had been deprived of the possibility of voting Green because of an electoral pact. In 2017 Labour came second. Lib Dems third.

It's hard to know how things will pan out next time around. Charlbury itself is overwhelmingly Lib Dem, but that is not true of the area as a whole. Personally, I will decide nearer the time -- especially since I am amongst those who argued that Charlbury should be moved into the new Bicester constituency where voting Lib Dem might really make a difference.

Wed 19 Oct 2022, 05:19

My conclusion is that as the electoral boundaries stand, if I want a Labour government, I should vote Liberal Democrats. I don't normally approve of tactical voting, but these are certainly not normal times. 

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 22:22 (last edited on Tue 18 Oct 2022, 22:24)

Christine - to put you in the picture, I am referring to a Labour agent*.  Perhaps you should get your facts right.

The idea any single party will win over 500 seats at a General Election is risible.

*Edit: plus a Labour candidate who came last here despite claiming at the time he could win.

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 22:21

Looking at MP numbers, Lib Dems have 14 of the 650 seats in the Commons. The latest poll figures show Labour on 52%, Tories on 20% and Lib Dems on 11%. These numbers  seem to show clearly how to vote if you really want to change things. Tactical voting might let this lot back in again!

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 21:06

All this talk of Labour winning in Witney, when the Liberals got 30% in 2019 with the support of the Greens, and Labour just 14%, reminds me of the Ascott local election last year when Labour claimed to be in with a serious chance, and the result, the Tories won by 4 votes over the Liberals, with Labour coming a poor third. Perhaps that is what Labour would prefer to happen in the Witney constituency next time? As I say I’m quite happy to vote Labour, if Charlbury is moved into the Banbury seat as a result of boundary changes.

Love the reference to Dads army Steve. 😀

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 19:55 (last edited on Tue 18 Oct 2022, 20:01)

Gareth, Just because somebody with a professional interest in maps queries the source of a map that shows Labour as a likely victor in the Witney constituency, it does not mean that person is a Labour activist.

Nick asked a very good question about the origins of the twitter map, and the answer is Redfield and Wilton, a polling company. The map is a projection based on an opinion poll that they recently carried out, rather than a report -- or that's how it seems to me. I think pretty well anyone would also be suspicious of the colours on map.

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 19:26

It’s all very well Labour activists helping the Tories here by encouraging people to waste their votes in Witney based on some hokum on that most reliable of news sources (not), Twitter.

In any case, the facts are that Labour are a very poor last place in Witney, a position from which no mainstream party in England has come through to win in a General Election in the modern age.

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 10:57

I’ve moved the other (more nationally focused) thread to the Debate board. If you want to talk about the national situation, or argue more strongly about the local situation, that’s the best place for it. I’m keeping this one on the main board for now just for the Charlbury-specific angle about the future constituency etc., but if you’d like to express yourself more forcefully then please use the Debate board!

Tue 18 Oct 2022, 09:38

And just to confuse matters, the map in this tweet suggests voting Labour in the Witney constituency: https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1582039734846574592?t=qHTTBseQjR0UVKy7Y9oIyg&s=03 - it would be good to know where Election Maps UK are sourcing their data. Either way, it highlights the challenges of tactical voting, and how to make the most effective decision at the ballot box.

Sun 16 Oct 2022, 16:54

Chris, 'current shower' does not cut it. This is not an episode of Dad's Army. I think the Tory MP, Robert Halfon, captured it well this morning describing the Government as looking like libertarian jihadists.  

Sat 15 Oct 2022, 14:10

I wonder whether we could setup a perpetual motion machine bleating "proportional representation" and tap it for a global proportion of CO2 emmisions? Would therefore a shift from the insane electoral system have some sense or.... 

Sat 15 Oct 2022, 11:01

If you want a decent progressive government to replace the current shower at the next election, vote Lib Dem if Charlbury is still in the Witney seat, and Labour if Charlbury is moved over the the Banbury seat with boundary changes. Simple. 😁

Sat 15 Oct 2022, 10:41

And here we go again.  Labour supporters so busy wanting to argue with the Lib Dems that they let the Tories win.  Learning no lessons whatsoever from their losses in the last four General Elections, nor from the cooperation which is delivering positive change at district and county council level.

As Alice says, there are more effective things to do.  But the Lib Dems got more than twice as many votes as Labour here at the last election, and they have more councillors.  I’m with Rod at this point, and in our current constituency the way to unseat Robert Courts and all he is responsible for is not to vote Labour.

Sat 15 Oct 2022, 10:31

Then Labour and Lib Dem and Green need to agree to work together and stop being tribal, they need to stop competing for the same group of voters who represent the majority of the country.  No need to join a party, they are too big and unrepresentative.

Sat 15 Oct 2022, 09:58

Back to the original topic, there's a lot to be said for tactical voting, but we shouldn't set too much store by the results of the 2019 election which was a disaster for Labour across the board. In the previous election Labour came 2nd in Witney, and on present form the next election is likely to deliver similar if not improved results (IMHO!)

Fri 14 Oct 2022, 20:59

"Take back control"

Fri 14 Oct 2022, 20:58

I used to quote the remark from President Kennedy to Prime Minister Macmillan: 'You British are lucky, you have your lunatic fringe on your left.'  Maybe not so much, now. 

Fri 14 Oct 2022, 20:26

Let the people decide.

Fri 14 Oct 2022, 18:27

5.00pm, Friday, Kwarteng out.  You couldn't make it up.  I've never been a member of a party - well, not a political one - but whichever constituency we fall into next time, surely the first priority is to ensure the Conservative candidate loses.  Perhaps time for a new thread in Debate.....

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 18:06

The initiating post of this thread gives me hope... and I hope more people come to the same conclusion and announce it publicly.

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 13:44

You might have a good point Christine, if the boundaries are changed before the next election and Charlbury is placed into the Banbury seat, Labour would be the obvious challengers to the Conservatives in that situation. 

But if the boundaries stay as they are now, (which becomes more likely by the day, especially with the stability of the current government), then as the Liberals received over twice the Labour vote at the last election in the Witney seat and the Liberals will be the obvious challengers to the current M.P.  

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 13:14 (last edited on Thu 13 Oct 2022, 13:18)

Gareth: My info on the number of Labour Councillors for Chippy came from their Facebook page.  I see that this is out of date. 

All three District Councillors for Chipping Norton are Labour. They are as follows; Geoff Saul, Mike Cahill and Rizvanna Poole, as is their OCC Councillor, Geoff Saul.

When I said "local councillors", I was referring to Chipping Norton Town Council. But by my calculation, 12 (not 8) of the sixteen Chipping Norton Town Councillors are explicitly aligned with Labour: Ruth Fisher, Rachel Foakes, David Heyes, Emily Holmes, Georgia Mazower, Archie Miles, Rizvana Poole; Lexie Tuckwell, Mark Walker; Sharon Wheaton, Steve Akers, Nova Bradley. 

Why it is "dim" to point this out, Chris, I fail to understand. It's entirely possible, of course, that a General Election will be held before 2024, but otherwise the timetable for redrawing the constituency boundaries is operating exactly as planned.

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 13:13

As the days tick by, it becomes ever more likely that the next election will be fought on the current Witney boundary.

At the last general election in 2019, the Liberal Democrats received over 30% of the vote, compared to Labour’s mere 14%, so it is obvious to all but the dimmest as to who the main challenger will be to Robert Courts at the next election.

Let’s hope the Liberals have selected an experienced local candidate, because in the current circumstances it could be difficult for the Conservatives to hold Witney, especially with the calibre of the current office holder.

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 11:56

In the current climate there is no certainty that the boundary changes will happen at all.

As Chipping Norton only has 3 district and one county councillors, it is taking ramping to extremes to suggest that 8 are from one party.  (I know that Chippy has party political town council candidates, but not many, and that’s hardly an effective measure of local support: many people of all persuasions prefer to stand independent of political affiliation at that level.)

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 11:09

We are still waiting to discover which Parliamentary Constituency Charlbury will be in by 2024. It's very unlikely to be Witney which has grown so much as a town, given the insistence that numbers in any given constituency should all be roughly equal. 

We are at the moment down to be, with Chipping Norton, assigned to the Banbury North Oxfordshire constituency which currently has Victoria Prentis as its MP.  She is currently Minister of State at the Department for Work and Pensions. 

Not sure that the calculations with regards to LibDems will be be applicable in that case -- Labour does well in Chippy, with 8 of their local councillors being Labour, and with a clean sweep in the elections last May. (At the moment Charlbury comes under Chipping Norton as far as the Labour Party organisation is concerned.)

The other possibility for 2024 (which a number of people have argued for) is that Charlbury should be moved to the proposed brand new Bicester constituency, joining nearby communities that have already been proposed for this linking, including Stonesfield, Woodstock, Eynsham, Bladon, Kidlington. In this case voting LibDem in a General Election  would probably make more strategic sense, but at the moment everything is very fluid. 

We are due to find out the final proposals for the constituency boundaries in July 2023. Of course, if there is a General Election before then (not unlikely!), any calculations will be different. For the time being, I suggest giving one's support and one's money to whatever seems the best political solution overall. 

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 08:09

I thought about the Liberal Democrats, and I agree with your strategic logic.

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 08:02

The wrong party if you want to see them out round here, as they came last in 2019.  See results at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witney_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Thu 13 Oct 2022, 07:59

As a former Army officer and a life-long Conservative, I have had enough. I'm out.