Oxford put into Tier 2

Sat 31 Oct 2020, 10:57

Expanding on a comment I made on a previous thread relating to college students aged 16 - 18 crowding on buses and trains to/ from Oxford. The issue isn’t confined to places with universities but places where students are travelling to/ from on a daily basis like Oxford college. I bet there are loads of kids in the Cherwell district that attend Oxford college.

Also, it doesn’t take a genius to spot the obvious pattern developing on the regional tier map. Most of the south is tier 1 with exception of London and Essex. Also Oxford and Cambridge are both now tier 2. And what are those two places famous for again? Allowing students to attend university cities when they are only doing online tutorials in their halls of residence doesn’t make sense. They could have done the same from home

Sat 31 Oct 2020, 10:51

John, have you ever been to Bicester Shopping Village? Swarms of people,  at least when I used to shop there.

Fri 30 Oct 2020, 23:44

Figures for Cherwell (Banbury and Bicester) also very high, neither town noted for its universities.

Fri 30 Oct 2020, 17:47

25% positivity rate is very high. I think the students only have themselves to blame. Now when they can't go to pubs and party they will just continue partying in their residences. Sweden has the same problem, but the Swedish PM came out and said directly to the students "No more parties!". Stop selling alcohol around the colleges in Oxford and other student settings. Otherwise we will be forced in to a national lockdown with lots of other problems. So selfish of them! Well that was my rant for today.

Fri 30 Oct 2020, 12:04

Also worth bearing in mind that cases and hospitalisations are rising across the country (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/ ) with R about 1.6 currently and infections doubling every 9 days. Areas with the highest prevalence are not just Uni towns (although clearly that does contribute). I think more restrictions are inevitable, the questions will be will be how regional/localised will they be and how severe will they be? The answer to those 2 questions depends on whether people want a higher or lower level of COVID-19 this winter.... I know which I would prefer.

Fri 30 Oct 2020, 11:49

Just to point out that the University testing system is following up all the contacts of positive cases, so many of the positives could be asymptomatic contacts. The University system tests symptomatic staff as well as students, so some of the positives will be staff members  who chose to get tested through the University rather than the government test and trace system (mainly because you can book a test from the University within 24 hours and the turnaround is fast too). A large proportion of staff don't live in Oxford city and so their positive results will be attributed to where they live. Most students are registered with an Oxford city centre GP, so the vast majority of student results will be included in the total for Oxford City.

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 19:13

Last week Oxford University reported 208 cases, and that does not include the Oxford Brookes cases. Some of these will be counted into the City total. But many (maybe most)  will not. The total for Oxfordshire overall was 184. 

The story was here: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18826096.concerning-gap-covid-numbers-university-cases-surge/

I think some of those Oxford University cases must have been due to the matriculation event on October 17th which saw lots of students round town without masks, drinking and taking selfies and in very large groups. It's hardly surprising the numbers have gone up so suddenly. Of course not all students behave so irresponsibly, but it seemed almost inevitable that there would be a surge a couple of weeks later, and that's what has now happened.

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 18:02

Oxford University is running its own test and trace system, with centres at Headington and another in the city centre. Each week it reports the number of positive cases recorded on this web site: 

https://www.ox.ac.uk/coronavirus/status?fbclid=IwAR1wX-X9AZOORCvgHrNRWPembDPQYe0Jmm9DCK9saiXV4jxEtOlmBCDOwk8&bblinkid=244130803&bbemailid=24746714&bbejrid=1684526032

From memory,  three weeks ago it recorded about 70 cases in a week, and the week before that about 30-40. I assume that these numbers should then be added to the numbers for Oxford city. I imagine Oxford Brookes will have a similar rate of positive cases, although I've not seen any numbers from them.

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 16:24 (last edited on Thu 29 Oct 2020, 16:27)

The trouble with the Test & Trace data is that the members of staff and students who test positive at the 2 Oxford Universities don't automatically get counted in the data figures for Oxford. Instead, their data comes under whichever area their GP is registered in.

It's been reported this week that the totals registered for the Universities in the last 7 days outstrips the total T&T nos for Oxfordshire as a whole. It therefore seems quite sensible to move Oxford up a tier. There is more infection there than the official figures suggest.

I have just received the data for West Oxfordshire on the King's College (Zoe) app. which is always a couple of weeks ahead of the official T&T estimates. That says it estimates 446 cases in West Oxfordshire, up by 196 from last week. 

The postcode checker that I have been using, http://ukcovid19.nw.r.appspot.com lists only new 100 cases. Of these 9 are in Charlbury and North Leigh. Witney has by far the greatest number (35), most of which are in East Witney, including Cogges. The majority of these are probably linked to Wood Green School. Carterton also has a lot (22). 

The figures for Oxford are much higher: 160 new cases in the last 7 days (but we know that figure is an underestimate) and 820 in the last 30 days (ditto). 

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 16:22

A sensible person would test them all before going home - or stay at uni. If you have a spare 30 mins you'd do well to listen to this program about what's going on at Manchester uni. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000nt9t

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 16:01

Yes Hans,

Probably not a brainwave to open up the Universities to all in the middle of a pandemic.

Not much fun for them either as most are in lockdown in their Halls.  Our niece is (Bristol).

I fully expect the powers that be to encourage them all to return home at Christmas.  Spread it around!

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 15:08

Appears to be Oxford city for now, not Oxfordshire. I blame the students.

https://www.oxford.gov.uk/downloads/file/1097/oxford_city_council_boundary_map

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 14:20

this is what is being sent out by email

Oxford officially moved to ‘high’ COVID alert level as cases continue to rise.

The city of Oxford will be moved into the government’s ‘high’ or tier 2 alert level after a further rise in cases of COVID-19. The move means that Oxford residents will need to abide by new rules from Saturday 31 October.

Evidence continues to show that, in the past three weeks, the virus has spread to a much wider age range across the county and is no longer confined to younger people in urban areas. Hospital admissions have begun to increase as a result.

Bruno Holthof, Oxford University Hospitals CEO, said: “We have moved from a position of low and stable hospital admission rates over the summer to one in which admission rates are increasing. We know there is a time lag between rising cases and an increase in hospital admissions and so we expect to see a further increase in hospitalisation rates over the coming weeks.”

What are the features of the ‘high’ level of COVID alert?

• People must not meet socially with anybody outside their household or support bubble in any indoor setting, whether at home or in a public place

• People must not meet in a group of more than six outside, including in a garden or other space.

• People should aim to reduce the number of journeys they make where possible. If they need to travel, they should walk or cycle where possible. If taking public transport, they should plan ahead and avoid busy times and routes.

Further information is available at https://www.oxford.gov.uk/tier2

Message Sent By

Luke Stratford (Police, Comms, HQ South)

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 14:11

I don't know Jean.  It's all so confusing!  

Anyway, Rachel went there this morning and said that on the whole it wasn't much different.  She even went to the Westgate and the covered market.  

So life goes on, in a slightly strange way.

Thu 29 Oct 2020, 13:46

Can they separate Oxford from West Oxfordshire?