Solar eclipse will send solar generation plunging

Mon 24 Aug, 17:27

However, things are moving in a good direction

Mon 17 Aug, 10:55 (last edited on Mon 17 Aug, 21:12)

Yes Ed.  Except, our winters are dark and wet.  So supply in the winter is much reduced and the price of solar would be significantly higher because there would be so little available.  Which is why successive governments think we need a backload of nuclear.  (Useful to the production of weapons.)

So, if you insisted solar energy lower its price in the summer because of a summer of exceptional supply then they might not cover their annual required budget after a winter of 6 dark months of constant rain.   Or, you might combine wind with solar because they tend to compensate for each other and battery storage might be used.

The problem is what Liz said much earlier - they have to enter into contracts to sell their supply.  The contractor makes an assessment of the value of energy taking into account a long list of unknown unknowns - weather, war, the oil & gas cartel agreed supply levels, etc. and offers them a price for up to a 3 year contract.  In this country it is only those contractors, the middle-men, who sell to customers.  If there is an opportunity we need to seize now, it is to require all new renewable energy production to be all or partly owned and managed by the people who live around it and to allow them to sell directly as in the Netherlands where 45% of new contracts must be offered for community ownership.

Thu 13 Aug, 20:36

Thankyou Alice . Your line of...... "If only we could unlink the cost of renewable energy from the global market for oil and gas" , cuts to the point of my question. There are many people profiting from oil and gas prices driven up by war. Is a similar thing happening with Solar market ? Not from war, but unprecedented sunshine and yet no reduction in price for the vast majority of consumers

Thu 13 Aug, 17:09

@ Michael Peake. Disagree with you?! Not at all. I was admiring the clarity of your explanations which beautifully complemented my rather more technical ones.

Thu 13 Aug, 14:05

Price goes up when demand increases and expensive sources of energy need to be used to supplement the cheap supply, renewables. Electricity is 3 times more efficient in providing energy and hot water to the home through a heat pump than any gas boiler. Using electricity through a heat pump reduces the amount of energy needed in a home to achieve the same result as a gas boiler. Using electricity from renewables in all homes instead of gas is a no brainer.

Electricity is more expensive than gas only because of man’s intervention in its pricing mechanism. If only we could unlink the cost of renewable energy from the global market for oil and gas. If only we could divert the massive investment in renewing the gas mains to houses, fit for another 40 years, towards clean energy in houses.

Fortunately for the grid supply, yesterday evening was so unbearably hot we were all outside crouched under trees admiring the solar eclipse through our colanders.

Thu 13 Aug, 09:49

Michael. Thankyou for that very clear explanation. See you in the R and C v soon.

Thu 13 Aug, 09:29

I know it looks like Liz and I are saying opposite thing but we're not actually disagreeing.

The majority of domestic customers are not of the flexible tariffs like the one Octopus offers. If someone is on that tariff, yesterday evening and this evening will be very expensive. However, those same customers often benefit from free electricity when it's windy and the sun is shining. So hopefully things balance out for them.

What does affect the average customer in the longer run is if these very hot periods become more common. Then the suppliers will be factoring in this possibility into their long-term projections and increasing all of our bills to cover for them.

Very happy to chew your ear off over a beer, Ed!

Thu 13 Aug, 08:11

Because the electricity system demands that supply and demand are kept in balance at all times. If it is not, the system falls over and there are blackouts. so Generation must come on to replace solar if we know that it is To drop off even if only for a few minutes. Similarly, during half-time in a big football match when people jump up to make a cup of tea, generation has to be ramped up to meet the new peak in demand for a few minutes. Certain to be more expensive as it is ‘idling’ until it is needed. These days it might be additional power from huge storage batteries. And all this is happening without most of us being aware. 

Wed 12 Aug, 22:02

Liz....... "This may affect people on variable tarriffs"

Michael...." the vast majority of customers are not affected""

My point is, why should "any one persons" electricity bill be affected by  the lack of sunshine for a few minutes. Those people must be living in fear of a cloud appearing in the coming days.

Wed 12 Aug, 21:19 (last edited on Wed 12 Aug, 21:25)

‘The market’ in this instance is specifically the set of rules which enable generators and suppliers to buy and sell electricity and settle the cost of their trades. These rules are  maintained by an organisation called Elexon. The wider market is based on short- and long-term contracts which fix the prices at which generators and suppliers trade. Southill Solar has a 3-year Power Purchase Agreement with a supplier. These mechanisms are all required because generation and use all happen in real time. 

Wed 12 Aug, 19:41 (last edited on Wed 12 Aug, 19:46)

The eclipse does have an impact but the energy markets have actually decided it’s more expensive at the same time tomorrow. 20% more, in fact, looking at the day-ahead markets. There’s a multitude of factors but high temperatures in France affect the UK market significantly. 

We import lots of energy via the two interconnectors with France thanks to their abundance of nuclear power. However, they rely on river water to cool the power stations. Heat like this raises the temperature of the rivers and lowers the ability to cool the power stations. The nuclear needs to get turned down in response. So tomorrow evening we are likely to export energy to France and so the price goes up. 

As Liz says, the vast majority of domestic customers are entirely unaffected. Suppliers deal with fluctuations daily. 

Wed 12 Aug, 19:41

Thankyou Liz. That gets me slightly enlightened. I guess what concerns me and many othersis that we live in a very turbulent world, where what happens thousands of miles away, can impact our wholesale energy prices. It concerns me that you suggest our "markets" react to an event that was predicted many decades ago. 

Wed 12 Aug, 18:02

The electricity market is based on half-hourly pricing which emerges from the relationship between demand and supply. The price is sometimes very high in peak half-hours when demand is at its highest and the most expensive supply has to be brought on. Most of this is not seen by retail customers because the ups and downs are managed through tariffs whereby suppliers model what they can charge you taking into account the averages of demands and prices. Some suppliers, like Octopus, offer people the opportunity to see these peaks and troughs of prices. Troughs because obviously there are times when there is a lot of generation and not much demand so the supplier pays you to use power. This is when we put on our dishwasher and washing machine. And of course it encourages us to switch things off when prices are high. I hope this explanation helps. 

Wed 12 Aug, 17:39

Seems to expose the present weakness of renewable energy. We can produce it but the current distribution system doesn't allow us to get it to the right place at the right time. Neither do we have the storage facilities for when production is in surplus. The hidden cost of renewables.

Wed 12 Aug, 17:06

Still not feeling enlightened. The implication in the opening comment to this thread suggests that "dynamic pricing" is taking place. If that is the case, then we should all have benifitted from the extra sunshine we have had this summer, providing Solar companies the opportunity to sell cheaper electric into the grid. It sounds SO simple, so, as I said earlier, am I missing the point?? Maybe someone from Southill solar could explain to me how it all works, to better understand and most importantly, reassure us that we are paying a fair price.

Wed 12 Aug, 14:57

Renewables are currently producing 57% of UK electricity, (solar 38% and wind 19%) and fossil fuels (gas) only 7%. Pretty impressive performance by renewables and increasing. 

Wed 12 Aug, 13:54

So as we enter into autumn/winter and it's normally dark at the time of the eclipse, will electricity prices go up as the sun goes down?

Wed 12 Aug, 13:05

Couldn't make it up!! -- could you. John H

Wed 12 Aug, 09:25

From Octopus: “While the moon is blocking the sun, solar generation will plummet at the same time as home energy demand spikes. By powering down together in Saving Sessions like this one [they are offering free energy this weekend as an incentive], we can help take the strain off the grid and avoid the need to switch on extra fossil fuels.”

Wed 12 Aug, 08:44

Am I missing something here. We have had weeks of unprecedented sunshine and the minute the sun goes in for a few minutes, people are going to get charged more for their electric???? Please enlighten me.

Wed 12 Aug, 07:26

Southill Solar has been powering away in these sunny weeks along with solar plants all over the UK. The eclipse will cut the sun for several minutes with loss of generation. Wholesale power prices will peak between 6 and 7pm. This may affect those on variable tariffs as gas fired power stations are brought on. Prices of 50 or 60p per unit are predicted. If you can just lower your demand by switching off as much as possible, you will be helping the power system and your own pocket.