Poll that shows the Banbury seat as a three way marginal.

Mon 16 Mar, 10:14

For those not following along, a projection is basically one guy’s opinion of “if you apply the national opinion polls to individual seats, what would the result be?”.

It is not asking people in the Banbury constituency who they would vote for. It is just an opinion. It is only worthwhile if you know who that one guy is, and trust his opinion. (I apologise for gender-specific terms, but these are pretty much entirely done by anoraks on Twitter with too much time on their hands, so it very probably is a guy.)

There are projections pretty much every week. Here’s Electoral Calculus from 24 February, here’s Election Maps from 15 March, here’s Principal Fish from 6 March. Two of them predict a Labour hold in Banbury, one predicts a Reform gain.

There is no actual constituency polling (i.e. asking people in the Banbury constituency what they think), and vanishingly unlikely to be any: it’s expensive and Banbury isn’t high enough up anyone’s radar. We will have more of a pointer after May’s local elections – Charlbury isn’t up for election this time, but much of Cherwell and West Oxfordshire are. If Reform is really going to win the seat here, you would expect them to take seats in both Banbury town and some of the rural areas in May.

Sun 15 Mar, 17:30

Think this is the first poll/projection for the Banbury seat since the last election nearly two years ago. So I would guess that there will probably only be one or two more polls of the seat before the next election. Although not perfect, it gives some guide as to what shifts in voters views have taken place. And Likely to be a better guide than the spurious claims by some political parties nearer the next election. 

Fri 13 Mar, 09:26 (last edited on Fri 13 Mar, 10:11)

Good to know that we can discuss local politics civilly ha, ha! I do find it funny that local polls/projections are being looked at with the election probably 3 years away. Who knows where we will be by then - new Labour prime minister, third world war?
However, the Reform threat is very real so maybe it's good to be aware of that. Deputy Prime Minister Tice might be having lunch in the Bull come summer 2029...

Fri 13 Mar, 08:29

Fri 13 Mar, 08:04

It’s not a poll, factual or otherwise. It’s a projection. It’s some random on Twitter (sorry, X) giving their opinion on how the votes would fall if the election was held tomorrow, which it won’t be. These things are usually done by someone pumping national opinion poll figures into a spreadsheet, with no knowledge of local demographics, campaigning strength, etc. For what it’s worth, on present trends Banbury could well be a multi-way marginal, but I doubt it’ll fall the way this projection suggests.

With my admin hat on: there’s no blanket ban on talking about local politics civilly, but until I can work out an OSA-compliant way of reinstating the Debate board then the “civilly” proviso stands!

Fri 13 Mar, 07:04 (last edited on Fri 13 Mar, 08:45)

Well, now I have responded, politics is being discussed? 

Thu 12 Mar, 22:45

I wouldn’t’ve thought that giving the (factual) result of a poll was “talking politics”….

Thu 12 Mar, 22:05

🥱

Thu 12 Mar, 21:55

Ha ha, are we back to this again? Long way to the next general election but I thought we weren't allowed to talk politics on here anymore?

Thu 12 Mar, 16:23

Thu 12 Mar, 16:23 (last edited on Thu 12 Mar, 16:29)

Poll shows that Banbury is a three marginal between Sean Woodcock for Labour, Reform and Tory. Sizeable Green vote, if they vote tactically it  could ensure that Reform are kept out. Liberals seem to have got the tactical message, but could be squeezed more. Tactical voting is the best we’ve got until PR is introduced.